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Lenders this year have moved to foreclose on 6.9 percent fewer Bexar County properties than in 2010 ? a drop the real estate industry has anxiously awaited.
But is this a turning point or a mere technicality?
It?s hard to say.
The dip in foreclosure postings could be a much-awaited sign of an improving real estate market. Or it could simply signal that national scrutiny over the way foreclosures are processed has had an impact locally.
?What we?ve had is a slowdown in foreclosure activity because of the robo-signing scandal,? said James Gaines , research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas AM University. ?Maybe we shouldn?t jump to conclusions that all is well and getting better yet.?
Foreclosure postings dipped 3.8 percent for the June auction, down to 1,103 properties from 1,147 the year before, according to San Antonio-based foreclosure tracking firm RexReport.
For the year, foreclosure postings dropped from 8,320 properties in the first half of 2010 to 7,749 properties in January through June of this year.
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Gaines said Texas likely is following the same pattern as the rest of the country, with dipping foreclosure postings thanks to fraud allegations leveled against financial institutions where employees ?robo-signed? volumes of foreclosure paperwork without verifying the information. Although the scandal hadn?t had a huge impact in Texas, Gaines said lenders are likely more cautious with their paperwork trails.
Gregg Stanley of RexReport.com said there?s no economic news that should equate to so many fewer foreclosure postings for 2011. ?Banks are becoming concerned about the note trail,? Stanley said.
But still, San Antonio and other cities in Texas have weathered the real estate storm better than the country as a whole, and Gaines said that in retrospect, 2011 could be seen as the time when the sun started to peek out from behind the clouds.
?At the local level it really could be some early sign that we?ve gotten over the hump of the big wave of problems of foreclosures. It?s a relatively small drop-off, but at least it?s a drop-off,? Gaines said.
Foreclosure postings have gone up nearly every year since 1997, according to data tracked by the Bexar County Clerk?s Office. And in 2010, lenders moved to take back nearly 17,000 properties, a record high.
Mortgage data also is moving in the right direction.
The 90-day mortgage delinquency number, considered a strong indication of likely foreclosures, fell below 3 percent in Texas for the first time in two years. It?s at 2.8 percent now.
The Texas Mortgage Bankers Association also said this week that the foreclosure rate for residential mortgages was 1.89 percent in the first quarter of the year, compared with a national average of 4.5 percent.
Texas has the sixth-lowest foreclosure rate in the country. Only South Dakota, Nebraska, Alaska, North Dakota and Wyoming performed better.
Florida had the country?s worst foreclosure rate, at more than 14 percent, Gaines said.
?Most of the states in the middle of the country have not been hit like the two coasts,? he said. ?Most of the real estate recession is on the East Coast and the West Coast, with the exception of Michigan and Illinois, which were hit by the auto industry.?
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